Immigration Is Not a Demographic Cure-All: Towards a Sustainable Population Strategy

May 1, 2025 – Canada cannot rely on immigration alone to address the challenges posed by its ageing population and relentless decline in fertility rates, according to a new report from the C.D. Howe Institute. Without a broader population strategy, rising immigration could fuel rapid growth while straining housing, healthcare, and infrastructure — without fully resolving rising old-age dependency ratios or labour force pressures.

In “Balancing Canada’s Population Growth and Ageing Through Immigration Policy,” Daniel Hiebert confronts an important policy dilemma: although immigration increases overall population and helps address short-term labour gaps, the long-term trade-offs are significant. Without corresponding investment and planning, rising immigration risks compounding the very pressures it aims to alleviate.

“This is a particularly opportune moment to reflect on how immigration fits into Canada’s long-term demographic strategy, especially as both permanent and temporary immigration surged between 2015 and 2024, and are now being scaled back,” says Hiebert. “We need to think ahead about what kind of future we are building — and how we get there.”

Based on current patterns, it takes five new immigrants to add just one net new worker, once dependents and added consumer demand are factored in — a reality that undermines assumptions about immigration as a direct fix for labour shortages.

Hiebert argues that Canada must move beyond short-term immigration planning and adopt a long-range population strategy — one that combines immigration with other tools like delayed retirement, increased workforce participation, and stronger productivity growth. The alternative, he warns, is a “population trap”: a scenario where growth outpaces the country’s capacity to support it, undercutting prosperity in the process.

The report also calls on governments to coordinate immigration levels with long-term planning in housing, healthcare, education, and infrastructure.

“There’s no question that immigration is integral to Canada’s future,” says Hiebert. “But assuming it can carry the load alone ignores the structural pressures we’re facing — and the investments we need to make today to ensure future stability.”

Read the Full Report

For more information, contact: Daniel Hiebert, Emeritus Professor of Geography, University of British Columbia; Percy Sherwood, Associate Editor and Communications Officer, C.D. Howe Institute, 416-407-4798, psherwood@cdhowe.org.

The C.D. Howe Institute is an independent not-for-profit research institute whose mission is to raise living standards by fostering economically sound public policies. Widely considered to be Canada’s most influential think tank, the Institute is a trusted source of essential policy intelligence, distinguished by research that is nonpartisan, evidence-based and subject to definitive expert review.

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