The C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council is an arbiter of business cycle dates in Canada. The Council meets annually, or when economic conditions indicate the possibility of entry to, or exit from, a recession. The Council also acts as a conduit for research aimed at developing a deeper understanding of how the economy evolves and to provide guidance to policymakers. The Council performs a similar function to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee in the United States. The Council is comprised of Canada’s preeminent economists active in the field. Members of the Council participate in their personal capacities, and the views collectively expressed do not represent those of any institution or client.
The Council released its first report on October 24, 2012, providing an assessment of the 2008/09 recession, as well as an historical chronology of business cycle dates going back to 1926 (a background document that explains in greater details the methodology can be found here, with the associated peer-reviewed Commentary found here). In its second report, the Council determined that as of July 22, 2015, the data did not provide evidence that Canada had entered a recession. The findings of the third report, using revised Gross Domestic Product data, were consistent with the second report. The fourth report similarly corroborated the 2015 conclusions. Furthermore it determined that, based on expanded expenditure-based GDP data, the 1980 recession was now a near miss, and the fourth quarter of 1974 should be added to the first quarter 1975 recession. In its fifth report, members took a final vote, with a majority of members concluding that the first two quarters of 2015 did not qualify as a recession. In its sixth report, members updated the methodology to reflect the importance of the breadth of a downturn. The Council also changed the trough of the early 1990s recession from April to May. In its seventh report, members agreed that applying the Council’s methodology to the preliminary data available suggests that Canada entered a recession in the first quarter of 2020, with the economic peak occurring in February. In its eighth report, the Council discussed whether April 2020 should be seen as the end of the recession based on signs of economic recovery seen since then, but agreed it was too early to call. In its ninth and most recent report, the Council agreed the recession that began in March 2020 had its trough in April 2020, making it the shortest and deepest recession since the Great Depression in 1929.
Business cycle dates are determined by consensus. In the event of dissension among Council members, a simple plurality of votes is used. Votes are subject to a quorum of at least half of the members of the Council. The Council chair votes only in the event of a stalemate.
Co-Chairs
Steve Ambler
Fellow-In-Residence
Jeremy Kronick
Vice-President, Economic Analysis and StrategyMembers
Michelle Alexopoulos
Professor of Economics, University of Toronto
Edward A. Carmichael
Founding Partner, Ted Carmichael Global Macro
Philip Cross
Former Chief Economic Analyst, Statistics Canada
Stephen Gordon
Professor of Economics, Université Laval
Eric Lascelles
Chief Economist, RBC Global Asset Management
Stéfane Marion
VP & Chief Economist, National Bank of Canada
Angelo Melino
Professor of Economics, University of TorontoContent
