September 4, 2025 – The US tariff threat has exposed the fragility of Canada’s economic model, built on deep reliance on its southern neighbour. But tariffs are only the latest shock. Woeful productivity growth, high public debt, and a tax system that discourages growth have been weighing on the Canadian economy for years, according to […]
From: Brian LivingstonTo: Canadian Trade NegotiatorsDate: September 2, 2025Re: Aluminum Tariffs Canada supplies over half of the aluminum available in the United States (see chart). These sales of 2.8 million tonnes/year of raw aluminum from Canada to the US take place under agreements made between many companies. However, disrupting those business plans, the United States […]
Since Russia’s invasion of Crimea, world military expenditures have risen by 39% in real terms, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a sharp acceleration from a 24% increase in the 10 years prior. The chart illustrates that the contribution of the United States to this increase is smaller than its share of world […]
From: Lawrence HermanTo: Trade observersDate: August 20, 2025Re: Let’s Move Past the CUSMA Renewal Fantasy As the Carney government tries to sort out Canada’s relationship with the Trump administration, almost nothing has been disclosed about the scope, content, timing or ultimate objectives of these talks, even though the outcome –success or failure – will be hugely significant […]
August 12, 2025 – While trade diversification is imperative, Canada must move quickly to secure a trade and security framework with the United States and Mexico ahead of the formal Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA/USMCA) review, according to a new Communiqué from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Trade Crisis Working Group. The group of trade and industry […]
Eighth Meeting of the C.D. Howe Institute Trade Crisis Working Group The C.D. Howe Institute Trade Crisis Working Group held its eighth meeting on August 6, 2025, co-chaired by the Hon. Jason Kenney, Senior Advisor at Bennett Jones LLP, and the Hon. Mitzie Hunter, President & CEO of the Canadian Women’s Foundation. Noting the apparent […]
Published in The Globe and Mail By Jeremy Kronick and Steve Ambler On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.75 per cent. Although headline inflation has been at or below target for 9 of the last 11 months, there are some signs of underlying upward pressure on inflation. Also, Canada’s economic performance has […]
What does it take to protect $1 trillion in trade? Three CUSMA negotiators share the importance of preserving duty‑free trade between Canada, the US, and Mexico – and why these relationships remain vital for all three economies.
What does it take to protect $1 trillion in trade? Three CUSMA negotiators share the importance of preserving duty‑free trade between Canada, the US, and Mexico – and why these relationships remain vital for all three economies.
In anticipation of looming tariffs, Canadian exports to the United States rose sharply in late 2024 and early 2025, widening Canada’s trade surplus. But after many tariffs took effect, Canadian exports fell off dramatically, as did US imports, underscoring how the destabilization of trade can hurt both sides. The net effect on the trade balance […]
Published in The Globe and Mail By Jerzy Konieczny and Steve Ambler U.S. President Donald Trump has a new target. It’s not China, Mexico or Prime Minister Mark Carney, but Jerome Powell, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve. If Mr. Trump gets his way, the fallout won’t stop with the U.S. – it will hit Canada, too. The President has […]
From: Lawrence HermanTo: Trade war watcherDate: July 21, 2025Re: Managing Trade Expectations in the Trump Era Prime Minister Mark Carney’s frank admission last week about unlikely prospects for bilateral free trade with the United States is simply an expression of reality. Not much was revealed about Canada’s trade, economic and security talks with its neighbour, but the […]
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From: Brian LivingstonTo: Canadian Trade NegotiatorsDate: September 2, 2025Re: Aluminum Tariffs Canada supplies over half of the aluminum available in the United States (see chart). These sales of 2.8 million tonnes/year of raw aluminum from Canada to the US take place under agreements made between many companies. However, disrupting those business plans, the United States […] 
Since Russia’s invasion of Crimea, world military expenditures have risen by 39% in real terms, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a sharp acceleration from a 24% increase in the 10 years prior. The chart illustrates that the contribution of the United States to this increase is smaller than its share of world […] 
From: Lawrence HermanTo: Trade observersDate: August 20, 2025Re: Let’s Move Past the CUSMA Renewal Fantasy As the Carney government tries to sort out Canada’s relationship with the Trump administration, almost nothing has been disclosed about the scope, content, timing or ultimate objectives of these talks, even though the outcome –success or failure – will be hugely significant […] 
August 12, 2025 – While trade diversification is imperative, Canada must move quickly to secure a trade and security framework with the United States and Mexico ahead of the formal Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA/USMCA) review, according to a new Communiqué from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Trade Crisis Working Group. The group of trade and industry […] 
Eighth Meeting of the C.D. Howe Institute Trade Crisis Working Group The C.D. Howe Institute Trade Crisis Working Group held its eighth meeting on August 6, 2025, co-chaired by the Hon. Jason Kenney, Senior Advisor at Bennett Jones LLP, and the Hon. Mitzie Hunter, President & CEO of the Canadian Women’s Foundation. Noting the apparent […] 
Published in The Globe and Mail By Jeremy Kronick and Steve Ambler On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.75 per cent. Although headline inflation has been at or below target for 9 of the last 11 months, there are some signs of underlying upward pressure on inflation. Also, Canada’s economic performance has […] 
What does it take to protect $1 trillion in trade? Three CUSMA negotiators share the importance of preserving duty‑free trade between Canada, the US, and Mexico – and why these relationships remain vital for all three economies. 
In anticipation of looming tariffs, Canadian exports to the United States rose sharply in late 2024 and early 2025, widening Canada’s trade surplus. But after many tariffs took effect, Canadian exports fell off dramatically, as did US imports, underscoring how the destabilization of trade can hurt both sides. The net effect on the trade balance […] 
Published in The Globe and Mail By Jerzy Konieczny and Steve Ambler U.S. President Donald Trump has a new target. It’s not China, Mexico or Prime Minister Mark Carney, but Jerome Powell, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve. If Mr. Trump gets his way, the fallout won’t stop with the U.S. – it will hit Canada, too. The President has […] 
From: Lawrence HermanTo: Trade war watcherDate: July 21, 2025Re: Managing Trade Expectations in the Trump Era Prime Minister Mark Carney’s frank admission last week about unlikely prospects for bilateral free trade with the United States is simply an expression of reality. Not much was revealed about Canada’s trade, economic and security talks with its neighbour, but the […]