Cannabis Countdown: Estimating the Size of Illegal Markets and Lost Tax Revenue Post-Legalization

A large black market combined with supply shortages of legal marijuana will cut potential tax revenues by an estimated $800 million in the first year of legalization, according to a new report from the C.D. Howe Institute. In “Cannabis Countdown: Estimating the Size of Illegal Markets and Lost Tax Revenue Post-Legalization,” authors Anindya Sen and Rosalie Wyonch find that government revenue forgone to black market activity will likely exceed the amount federal and provincial governments collect, a figure only between $300 - $600 million.