Canada’s Rising Debt Levels and the Outlook for Interest Costs

Government debt interest costs depend on the level of debt, the maturity structure of that debt, and prevailing interest rates across that structure. Concerningly, market debt for federal and provincial/local governments has doubled over the past decade, with much of the increase occurring after the pandemic. Encouragingly, most of this new debt has been issued […]

The Three Big Challenges Facing Parliament Next Week

From: Colin BusbyTo: Parliament watchersDate: September 12, 2025Re: The Three Big Challenges Facing Parliament Next Week Three big policy issues will be the focal point when Parliament resumes next week. The government faces a challenging balancing act as it works against the backdrop of a weakening economy – the unemployment rate is at 7.1 percent […]

Weak Within and Shaken by Tariffs, Canada Needs a New Economic and Fiscal Model

Published in The Globe and Mail. A trading nation, Canada lives next to what has long been a big welcoming market in a generally competitive free-trading world. That once free American market is fast being restricted by tariffs, for now made passably permeable by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which is likely to be made more U.S.-protectionist […]

Transparency, Please, for Alberta’s Productivity Review Cabinet Committee

From: Lennie KaplanTo: Alberta fiscal observersDate: September 8, 2025Re: Transparency, please, for Alberta’s Productivity Review Cabinet Committee The work of the Alberta government’s “cost-cutting” cabinet committee, know as the Productivity Review Cabinet Committee (PRCC), continues to be kept out of main view, and the results of its activities should be disclosed to Albertans in the […]

Move Now: A 12-Month Capacity Reset for Canada

From: Harvey NaglieTo: Productivity watchersDate: September 4, 2025Re: Move Now: A 12-Month Capacity Reset for Canada Canada’s longstanding policy playbook – add population, launch programs, and assume headline growth will translate into rising living standards – is no longer fit for purpose. The window to make changes is shrinking: Every year of delay worsens per-capita […]

Shaken by Tariffs, Still Weak from Within: Canada Needs a New Economic and Fiscal Model

Edited remarks delivered to the School of Policy Studies, Queen’s University, on September 5, 2025.   Introduction: Canada Faces Layers of Economic and Fiscal Challenges There is keen awareness that Canada faces a serious economic challenge – if not a crisis – emanating from the US tariff threat. A desperate attempt is being made to […]

Tariffs Are Exposing Canada’s Deeper Economic Weaknesses

September 4, 2025 – The US tariff threat has exposed the fragility of Canada’s economic model, built on deep reliance on its southern neighbour. But tariffs are only the latest shock. Woeful productivity growth, high public debt, and a tax system that discourages growth have been weighing on the Canadian economy for years, according to […]

Federal Expenditure Review: Welcome, But Flawed

The federal government’s “comprehensive spending review” is a misnomer. Its narrow focus and carve outs limit the effective coverage to about a third of program spending. The review will deliver at most $22 billion in savings in 2028/29. That is not ambitious enough. Savings of around $50 billion are required to put federal finances on […]

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