Beyond the Unemployment Rate
Although the year-over-year rise in the unemployment rate suggests a weakening Canadian labour market, the reality is that Canada has a dynamic and robust labour market characterized by extraordinary labour force growth and steady employment gains. Intelligence Memos: 2024 in Review
To: Our Faithful Readers Date: January 2, 2025 Re: Intelligence Memos: 2024 in Review Intelligence memos are a key way C.D. Howe Institute researchers share their insights about current events. And 2024 had no shortage of material: Canada’s healthcare struggles, housing affordability, the Bank of Canada’s inflation fight, a host of questionable fiscal policies from Ottawa and the […] The 2024 Year in Review
With 2024 almost behind us, Michael Hainsworth shares some of the CDHI podcast’s most fascinating interviews and policy conversations during the course of a tumultuous year. Featuring: Wilbur Ross, Conrad Black, Martha Hall Findlay, John Baird, John Manley, Jason Kenney, John Tory, Mitzie Hunter, Rosalie Wyonch, Jane Philpott, Michelle Alexopoulos, Jeremy Kronick, Heather Evans, A.J. […] Harnessing Immigrant Talent: Reducing Overqualification and Strengthening the Immigration System
University-educated immigrants, especially recent arrivals, face disproportionately high rates of overqualification for their jobs compared to non-immigrants. This issue persists across various immigrant groups, with family-class immigrants and refugees experiencing particularly high levels. Immigrants can end up in jobs not matching their education level because of barriers to foreign credential recognition, lack of Canadian […] Christopher Worswick – Let’s Grab a Labour Mobility Win from the Trump Trade Turbulence
From: Christopher Worswick To: Concerned Canadians Date: December 9, 2024 Re: Let’s Grab a Labour Mobility Win from the Trump Trade Turbulence Last month Donald Trump said he’d impose a 25-percent tariff on all products from Canada and Mexico. Next, he reportedly joked that, if Canada cannot bear the economic consequences of the tariff, then it should become America’s “51st state.” […] Graph of the Week: How Demographics Drive Public Health Spending Trends
Over the past 10 years, provincial and territorial healthcare spending has increased across all age groups. Drilling deeper, in 2022, people over 75 years of age accounted for 29 percent of public health spending – a figure that hasn’t changed since 2012 despite a higher share of the population and increases in per capita spending. […] Don Drummond and Parisa Mahboubi – Mind the Spin Around Changes in Canadian Immigration Targets
From: Don Drummond and Parisa Mahboubi To: Immigration observers Date: November 19, 2024 Re: Mind the Spin Around Changes in Canadian Immigration Targets “Immigration targets slashed!” “Drastic reduction in temporary residents.” “Canada to reduce new immigration by 21 percent.” These sorts of headlines dominated the news after the federal government’s announcement to reduce Canada’s intake of permanent residents by 21 […] Drummond, Mahboubi – Beware the Spin Around Changes to Immigration Targets
Published in the Financial Post.
Immigration targets slashed! Drastic reduction in temporary residents. Canada to reduce new immigration by 21 per cent.
Headlines like these dominated the news after Ottawa announced it was reducing Canada’s intake of permanent residents by 21 per cent over the next three years, alongside new measures to bring the population of temporary immigrants into line with goals for it.
But the story really depends on the angle.
Yes, Canada’s new targets are much lower than both recent inflows and the previous official targets of 500,000 new permanent residents in 2025 and 2026. And, yes, Ottawa also plans to reduce the population share of temporary residents to five per cent by early 2027…
Graph of the Week: Canada’s Plan to Cut Non-Permanent Residents by 30 Percent by Early 2027
The chart illustrates both the historical and projected shares of non-permanent residents (NPRs), highlighting a significant rise, which peaked in mid-2024. Moving forward, Canada aims to moderate this trend, but to hit its target, it must reduce the number of NPRs by approximately 933,000 (over 30 percent) between mid-2024 and the beginning of 2027, a […] Christopher Worswick – High-Skill Migrants Should be Our Goal
From: Christopher Worswick To: Immigration observers Date: November 4, 2024 Re: High-Skill Migrants Should be Our Goal Late last month, Ottawa introduced major reductions in permanent-resident numbers and published population targets for temporary migrants for the first time. This policy pivot is a sensible response to the evolving immigration and macroeconomic situation in Canada. Given the dramatic increases […] C.D. Howe Institute Advisory Group on Immigration Targets
The C.D. Howe Institute has convened an Advisory Group on Immigration Targets to provide recommendations on immigration policy and immigration-level targets. On October 21, 2024, the group held its first meeting to discuss the future direction of Canada’s immigration targets, with a focus on balancing demographic shifts and the country’s absorptive capacity.
Following the government’s recent announcement on reducing immigration targets, the group’s discussions remain pertinent, as members raised concerns about the rapid increase in temporary residents, declining public confidence, housing shortages, and rising unemployment rates, underscoring the need to recalibrate Canada’s immigration approach. These…
Another Day Older and Deeper in Debt with Parisa Mahboubi and Bill Robson
When it comes to Canada’s finances, the country is aging in more ways than one. With a shrinking workforce, government revenue growth slowing, and costs for healthcare, pensions, and seniors benefits escalating. This issue disproportionately affects provincial governments, who bear the brunt of healthcare spending.
In the recent C.D. Howe Institute commentary “Another Day Older and Deeper in Debt: The Fiscal Implications of Demographic Change for Ottawa and the Provinces,” we learn that over the next four decades governments face an implicit $2 trillion liability because of these demographic changes.
Michael Hainsworth talks to commentary authors Parisa Mahboubi and Bill Robson about their research, their conclusions, and the possible solutions to problems caused by this aging trend.